Leader, co-leader and group members

Leader, Jan Harff

        University of Szczecin, Poland

Co-leader, Joanna Dudzińska-Nowak

University of Szczecin, Poland

Co-leader, Wenyan Zhang

Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany

Member, Markus Meier

Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Germany

Member, Richard Peltier

University of Toronto, Canada

Member, Daria Ryabchuk

A.P. Karpinsky Russian Geological Research Institute, Sr. Petersburg, Russia

Member, Tarmo Soomere

Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia

Member, Federica Foglini

Istituto di Scienze Marine-Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche Sezione di Geologia    
Marina di Bologna, Italy

Member, Jinpeng Zhang

Guangzhou Marine Geological Survey/ China Geological Survey, China

Member, Xinong Xie

China University of Geosciences Wuhan, China

Member, Peter Clift

Louisiana State University, USA

Member, Hayley Cawthra

Council for Geoscience and Nelson Mandela University, South Africa

 

Group Introduction

Group mission

General mission: Preparing a computer-based methodology of integrating global marginal seas’ evolution data and sharing of international knowledge to answer three basic questions:

- How did marginal seas of different climatic zones and tectonic settings change their paleo-geography, -oceanography, and -environment during the natural climate and environmental variation of the Last Glacial Cycle (last 130 ky)?

- What are the future expectations for the development of marginal seas and their coastal zones facing the challenge of climate change and increasing human impact on the environment for this century?

- What strategies for sustainable development of the marine and coastal realm can help to keep a balance between the protection of the environment and the economic use of marginal seas’ resources?

The general mission requires:

1. Initiating research projects in terms of

1.1 System analysis to describe the interrelation between geo-, eco-, climate-system and socioeconomic systems and its effects on marginal seas’ environments.

1.2 Interrelation of marginal seas and society: Paleoenvironments have to be reconstructed by the solution of inverse modeling tasks. Future projections are to be generated as the effect of climate change scenarios.

2. Data –management: Support of integration, standardization and harmonization of geodata and their international accessibility (FAIR principle).  

3. Co-operation with other DDE Working/Task Groups to answer the three questions mentioned along with the general mission of the Task Group.

4. Keeping contact with programs of other international scientific bodies that have overlapping with our marginal seas concept to explore synergy effects of co-operation.

5. Organizing scientific meetings/conferences and scientific publications in highly acknowledged journals.

 

Three-year goals (2020-2022)

2020 (Stage 1: base-line studies and research project initiation)

(1) Expansion of the international network of scientists for marginal seas research,

(2) Online-conference “Marginal Seas – Past and Future” (2nd Marginal Seas Expert Meeting),

(3) Initiating an international DDE research project “Eurasian Marginal Seas – Past and Future”,

 

2021 (Stage 2: model/data design)

 (4) Inventory of selected geo-, eco-, climate data bases for marginal seas project studies.

(5) Co-operation with DDE WTGs “Mathematical Geology”, "Sedimentology", "Data Science" and TGs "Standard" and “Paleoclimate Modeling” for harmonization and standardization and data sharing of marginal seas geo-data and model design,

(6) Conference “Modeling of marginal seas – from Global to Local” (3rd Marginal Seas Expert meeting, Guangzhou, China)
 
2022 (Stage 3: Model application)  

(7) Conference “Future Projections of Marginal Seas’ Environments and Engineering (Management) Responses” (4th Marginal Seas Expert Meeting) as a topical session of the 4th Baltic Earth Conference, Jastarnia, Poland,

(8) Strategic planning of future research tasks and corresponding projects in marginal sea research within the frame of the DDE Big Science Program of the IUGS.

During Stages 2 and 3 that TG members will advise the research project activities initiated by the TG.

The results of conferences / Marginal Seas Expert Meetings are planned to be published as research papers in internationally acknowledged journals.

Project Description

1. Brief description

The first year main target of the DDE Marginal Seas Task Group (MargSeas TG) is the development of a general strategy for describing the processes operating in marginal seas holistically as an interaction between geo-, ecosystem, climate and socioeconomic systems during the late Pleistocene, Holocene and Anthropocene based on big data analyses, functional numerical models and AI approaches. For model validation we shall use data bases reflecting stages of marginal seas development are required. These models allow reconstruction of the geologic history of study areas, as well as the generation of future projections and scenarios. The development of this strategy is regarded the mission of the Marginal Seas TG. Based on future scenarios and numerical simulation of cause-effect relations stakeholders and planning agencies will be able to develop plans of sustainable development of marginal seas’ coastal zones (Integrated Coastal Zone Management) in order to mitigate the major threats to these areas driven by rising sea-level, floods, storms, (meteo)tsunamis, coastal erosion, silting and environmental hazards. Our vision will be the balance between the protection of the natural environment of marginal seas and the economic use of their resources based on new data and new model driven cognition methods.

2. Expound on the alignment with the vision and mission of DDE

(1) Establishing an international network of scientists specialized in marginal sea research, modeling and AI and IT: The complex structure and the variety of functions of marginal seas with regard to the overlapping themes of the geosphere, bio(eco)sphere, anthroposphere and climate require an interdisciplinary and transboundary worldwide team of natural, environmental and social scientists (including historians and socio-economists), civil engineers and IT specialists. The team is to be built up from members of universities, research institutes and state authorities. 

(2) Setting up an inventory of global marginal sea data (including maps): The accumulation of research data in marginal seas has reached a level internationally where it is difficult to estimate in volume and quality. The focus of the first step in compiling the inventory will be on the regional targets of the research project initiated by the MargSeas TG. For the purpose of the DDE we consider FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) as a binding principle so that only those data that fulfill the corresponding requirements can be listed. For setting up the inventory a metadata catalogue structure has to be elaborated and implemented considering space-time and disciplinary coordinates as a base assignment of any primary (measured) and secondary (modeled) data. 

(3) Running international conferences will provide the base for knowledge exchange and reporting own results to answer the three scientific questions to be answered as the DDE Marginal Seas Task Group’s mission.  

 (4) Initiating a research project “Eurasian Marginal Seas – Past and future”: The research project (PI: Dr. Wenyan Zhang, Co-leader of the MargSeas TG) is supposed to be supported by DDE and project partners. It is to be regarded as a regional implementation of the general marginal seas scope of the MargSeas TG and directly reflects its mission and vision.

General targets of the project will be a direct regional implemental of the TG’s mission by integrating isostatic, oceanographic, morphodynamic and climate models and data:

a) Integrating interdisciplinary data describing the structure and evolution of three exemplary Eurasian marginal seas (North Sea, Baltic Sea and South China Sea) over the past 130 kyr,

b) Developing advanced numerical methods (“Big-data” driven & mechanistic) of complex geosystems to generate environmental scenarios for Eurasian coastal areas on the global, regional and local level (Zhang et al. 2020),  

c) Application of these methods to the three targeted Eurasian marginal seas in order to reconstruct the geological and environmental history and to generate future scenarios for the end of this century by applying results of climate modeling,  

d) To mitigate the threats of coastal erosion and other environmental hazards by developing strategies of sustainable management of the coastal zones based on numerical experiments,

e) Development of open digital platforms of FAIR data and model tools to allow societal stakeholders to generate cause-effect scenarios with the goal of optimizing impacts of environmental management.

3. Milestones and timelines for 2020/2021

(1) Two-days online Conference “Marginal Seas – Past and Future” held on Dec 16/17, 2020 (https://baltic.earth/EMS2/).          timeline: 12-2020

(2) Project proposal “Eurasian Marginal Seas – Past and future” submitted to DDE Secretariat.          timeline: 01-2021

(3) Inventory of a global to regional marginal seas data base.          timeline: 09-2021

(4) Conference “Modeling of marginal seas – from Global to Local” (3rd Marginal Seas Expert meeting) to be held at Guangzhou, China).          timeline: 11-2121

4. Feasibility analysis

With the DDE MargSeas TG a team of experts from nine countries has formed that represents multidisciplinary expertise describing the fields of geosphere, bio(eco)sphere, anthroposphere and climate, modeling and data sciences in marginal seas. All team members are experienced in conducting international research co-operation. This cooperation is specifically developed to meet the high interdisciplinary requirements of the MargSeas TG. The cooperation is planned on three levels:

(1)   Project level: The MargSeas TG initiates research projects to solve special disciplinary and regional tasks. Partners are involved in these projects, who contribute their special expertise to the fulfillment of the project tasks. The establishment of "Project Advisory Boards" in which both DDE representatives and stakeholders participate is to provide direct guidance for the project work. Special co-operation is planned with the International Association for Mathematical Geosciences (IAMG)

(2)   DDE level of WTGs: The DDE structure represents an ideal scientific environment for interdisciplinary exchange. WGs “Mathematical Geology”, “Sedimentology”, “Data Science” and TGs “Standard” and “Paleoclimate Modeling” are named as direct cooperation partners.

(3)   External level: The annual expert meetings, which are usually connected to conferences, serve for the continuous exchange of scientific knowledge which the MargSeas TG organizes. In 2019 and 2020 these special meetings took place very successfully. Additionally, the members of the MargSeas TG are continuously using the established international network of scientists for sharing scientific results and discussions.

 

The financing of research projects to be initiated by the Task Group is an important problem. This problem can be solved only by raising funds from different sources:
On the one hand, the MargSeas TG applies for DDE research funding. Additionally, the Task Group plans to apply for equivalent grants from external project partners.

To pay attention to creativity the MargSeas TG team will be composed of experienced scientists and early stage researchers (ESR). The support and development of ESRs have a firm place on the work concept of the MargSeas TG.